After years of record staff shortages, unemployment in the Netherlands is creeping up again and more companies are announcing reorganisations. At first glance, that sounds like bad news. Yet economists and labour-market experts say the recent rise in unemployment and some mass layoffs can actually be a sign of a healthier, more balanced economy rather than the start of a crisis, as reported by AD.
Economy still growing while unemployment edges up
According to recent figures, unemployment has risen to about 4%, the highest level in roughly four years. That means just over 400,000 people are currently without work, up from much lower levels in previous years.
At the same time, forecasts show that the Dutch economy is still expected to grow in 2026. Purchasing power is set to increase, government spending remains strong, and exports continue to perform well, helped in part by new German investment plans. In that context, a modest rise in unemployment is seen by some economists as “actually good news”: it suggests the labour market is cooling from an overheated situation, rather than tipping into a recession.
Why some layoffs can help the labour market
Large layoffs and reorganisations have made headlines in recent weeks, with trade union CNV warning that thousands of jobs may disappear. Yet labour-market experts like Ton Wilthagen (Tilburg University) and Leontine Treur (Rabobank) argue that, in the current Dutch context, some layoffs are not automatically bad for the economy.
Their main argument:
The Netherlands still faces structural staff shortages in many sectors.
When less healthy or shrinking companies cut staff, those workers can, in theory, move to firms and sectors that are growing and urgently looking for people.
In other words, layoffs free up people in places where there is less future demand and make it easier to fill vacancies where there is more. The core problem, they say, is not a lack of jobs, but a mismatch between the workers available and the positions open.
Short-term unemployment is therefore not seen as a major macro-economic risk, as long as people can move on to a new job reasonably quickly. Long-term unemployment, by contrast, remains a serious concern.
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Focus shifts to retraining and matching
To make this “healthy adjustment” work in practice, the experts stress the importance of active guidance and retraining:
Regional Job Centres and other collaborations between UWV, municipalities, employers, unions and education providers are already helping tens of thousands of people find new work, often with extra training.
Trade unions are urged to focus less on “doomsday scenarios” and more on steering laid-off workers towards new opportunities.
Employers are encouraged to look at skills and potential instead of only diplomas, so that workers can switch sectors more easily after short upskilling programmes.
Examples include people with precise manual skills moving from beauty or craft jobs into technical roles, or workers without fluent Dutch being hired in positions where the language requirement can realistically be lower.
A cooler labour market, not a crisis
For now, most indicators point to a labour market that is becoming less tight, but still relatively strong by historical standards. There are more unemployed people than a year ago, yet the number is still low compared to past downturns.
Economists describe this phase as a necessary cooling after a period in which many companies simply could not find enough staff. A slightly higher unemployment rate:
Reduces pressure on wages and recruitment.
Gives companies more room to select candidates.
Can improve overall productivity as workers move into roles and sectors where they are needed most.
At the same time, the adjustment is not painless. For individuals who lose their jobs, the impact can be severe, especially if it takes long to find new work or if the new job pays less. That is why experts insist that policy must continue to focus on fast matching, strong retraining options and protection against long-term unemployment.
