For the first time in history, the Netherlands now has more elderly people than young residents. New figures from Statistics Netherlands (CBS) show there are about 3.76 million people aged 65 and older, compared to 3.72 million people under 20.
This moment has long been expected, but it marks a clear turning point in how the Dutch population is structured.
What the numbers show
On 1 January 2025:
People aged 65+: 3.76 million, about 20.8% of the population.
People aged under 20: 3.72 million.
People of working age (20–65): about 59% of the population today, expected to fall to 55% by 2040.
CBS expects the number of elderly people to keep growing faster than the number of children and teenagers. By around 2070, there could be almost two million more pensioners than youngsters.
Why the Netherlands is ageing
CBS points to two main reasons for this shift:
Ageing baby boom generation: People born in the strong post-war birth years are now reaching retirement age. This group is large and living longer than previous generations.
Low birth rates: Dutch women are having fewer children on average. The fertility rate has fallen to about 1.4 children per woman, well below the 2.1 needed for natural population replacement.
Migration also plays a role. In recent years, more people have moved to the Netherlands than left, which has temporarily slowed ageing. But CBS expects low birth rates to dominate in the long run.
Photo Credits: Sabina Fratila/Unsplash
Impact on work and pensions
With fewer young people and a growing share of pensioners, pressure on the working-age population will increase. Fewer workers will have to support more retirees through:
State pensions (AOW)
Occupational pensions
Taxes for healthcare and social services
CBS and other experts warn that the Netherlands is heading into a “second ageing wave” later this century, when the large group of today’s middle-aged adults also reaches 80+. This could bring higher costs for care and pensions at the same time.
Policy debates about retirement age, pension reforms, labour migration and participation (e.g. more women and older people in work) are likely to become more intense as these trends continue.
Healthcare, housing and local services under pressure
An older population has different needs:
More healthcare and long-term care, especially for people over 80.
More accessible housing, such as ground-floor homes, apartments with lifts, and assisted-living facilities.
Adapted public space and transport, with better accessibility and support.
Municipalities already report shortages of suitable senior housing and long waiting lists for care homes and home-care services. The rising number of elderly residents means these shortages could grow if policy and building plans do not adjust in time.
Fewer young people, long-term demographic risk
At the same time, the number of children and teenagers is not keeping up. Births are falling faster than many forecasts predicted. One recent analysis even warned that, if very low birth rates continue for decades, the Dutch population could shrink to below 10 million by the end of the century.
That extreme scenario is not CBS’s base case, but it underlines how strong the ageing trend is. CBS currently expects the population to grow to about 20.6 million by 2070, then stabilise or slowly decline.
