Jetten Rejects VVD-JA21 Coalition Path Before Deadline

D66 leader Rob Jetten has firmly ruled out forming a government with the VVD and far-right party JA21, saying a center-right coalition "is not a workable path." This decision is a major blow to VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz's preferred coalition plan and leaves Dutch government formation talks stuck with just days before the December 9 deadline.

Speaking on Friday to WNL's Café Kockelmann program, Jetten explained his decision: "I have said several times before that there are combinations in which D66 and JA21 could work together. But not a combination consisting of three right-wing parties. Center-right is not a viable route, because that is not a majority, not in the House of Representatives and not in the Senate."

The math backs up Jetten's point. A coalition of D66, VVD, CDA, and JA21 would have only 75 of the 150 seats in Parliament: one seat short of the 76 needed to pass laws reliably. This coalition would also be 14 seats short of a majority in the Senate, where the government needs support to get legislation approved.

A Friday morning meeting between informateur Sybrand Buma (the person trying to help form a government) and party leaders from D66, VVD, GroenLinks-PvdA, CDA, and JA21 didn't solve anything. The parties are using the weekend to "think things over" and will meet again on Monday.

The problem is that the main parties have drawn firm lines they won't cross:

VVD won't work with the left: VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz has said repeatedly she will not join any government that includes the left-wing alliance GroenLinks-PvdA. She calls any such government a "left-wing cabinet" she cannot support. Buma says there's no way to form a majority government as long as VVD refuses to work with GroenLinks-PvdA.

D66 has serious doubts about JA21: D66 has made clear it's very uncomfortable teaming up with the far-right JA21, which wants to completely stop immigration and end almost all spending on helping developing countries. These positions clash completely with D66's progressive values.

Nobody wants a weak minority government: Parties like JA21 and GroenLinks-PvdA aren't willing (at least for now) to promise the ongoing support needed to keep a minority government running. Buma says this kind of commitment is crucial because the next government faces big challenges and will need to make major budget cuts.

Buma has stated that a government including both VVD and GroenLinks-PvdA "has fallen off the table." He describes VVD's refusal to work with the left as "one of the burdens on the process from the start." Buma also noted that the centrist government D66 wants (which would include GroenLinks-PvdA) was effectively ruled out before his work even began because of VVD's position.

On Friday, Buma agreed with Jetten that the center-right coalition VVD wants isn't realistic either.

Over the past two weeks, D66 and CDA have been writing a policy document covering five important areas: housing, immigration, the economy, nitrogen pollution, and defense. An RTL Nieuws poll shows most people like much of what they've proposed so far. Three-quarters of all voters support their plans for housing, defense, and immigration; 64% support their economic ideas; and 59% like their plans on climate change and nitrogen pollution.

Interestingly, there's majority support across all five areas from both VVD and GroenLinks-PvdA voters: the parties most likely to be coalition partners. Even JA21 voters support the proposals on immigration, defence, and housing.

However, turning public support for these policy ideas into an actual working government has proven extremely difficult because the major parties won't compromise on who they'll work with.

The mood has gotten tense as the December 9 deadline gets closer. GroenLinks-PvdA leader Jesse Klaver has accused VVD of showing "arrogance of power" by refusing to consider coalitions that don't match exactly what it wants.

GroenLinks-PvdA has also warned that it would be a "crucial error" if D66 and CDA formed a minority government with the right-wing VVD, arguing this would betray the election results and disappoint D66's progressive voters.

Meanwhile, VVD's Yeşilgöz has said that if her party does join talks with D66 and CDA, she would want to start with a "completely new document," throwing away the work already done. Coalition negotiators see this as impractical given how little time is left.

With Jetten's Friday statement blocking the center-right path and VVD blocking the center-left option, there aren't many possibilities remaining:

Minority government: A D66-VVD-CDA government without enough seats for a majority is still mathematically possible, but it would need either GroenLinks-PvdA or JA21 (or both) to support them case-by-case on different laws. VVD's Yeşilgöz seemed to leave this door slightly open, saying "we have always said that a minority cabinet would not be our first choice, but we have not said whether we are for or against it in principle."

Adding very small parties: The pensioners' party 50Plus (with 2 seats) has been mentioned as someone who might join a D66-VVD-CDA-JA21 coalition to provide the one extra seat needed to reach 76. However, Jetten's Friday comments suggest he's already ruled this out.

Breakthrough compromise: Buma could still try to get VVD to agree to govern with GroenLinks-PvdA, or convince D66 to accept JA21. However, both scenarios look increasingly unlikely.

Buma is expected to give his final report to Parliament on December 9. He says the government-formation talks won't move forward unless parties are willing to take some risks. "It's complicated," he admits, but insists parties must be willing to move beyond their rigid positions.

With just days left and fundamental disagreements still unresolved, the Netherlands may be heading toward either a difficult minority government or new elections if no breakthrough happens over the weekend.