Road safety in the Netherlands is set to worsen in the coming years if no new measures are taken, according to a new long-term analysis from the national road safety institute SWOV. The institute forecasts that under present policies, the number of people killed in traffic could increase by around 10% by 2040, reaching between 720 and 760 deaths per year, while serious injuries may climb to 9,300–9,700 annually: roughly a 20% rise.
This confirms a troubling trend. After decades of improvement, Dutch road safety has stagnated since 2010, and recent years have even shown increases in casualties. SWOV’s fact sheet notes that the number of road deaths has not structurally declined in over a decade, and serious injuries continue to rise.
In 2024, 675 people died on Dutch roads and around 7,800 were seriously injured, according to Statistics Netherlands and SWOV updates, figures similar to 2023.
Cyclists and older people remain most at risk
Cyclists continue to account for a disproportionate share of victims: they represent 36% of all road deaths and 71% of serious injuries. If policies stay unchanged, SWOV predicts that by 2040 around 80% of all serious injuries will be cyclists, reflecting the rapid growth of bicycle and e-bike use.
Older road users are also increasingly vulnerable. A majority of fatalities in recent years involved people aged 60 and above, a trend expected to intensify as the population ages. Preliminary figures for 2025 already show slightly more fatalities compared to the same period in 2024.
Photo Credits: Martijn Stoof/Pexels
Major gaps in infrastructure and speed management
SWOV says that several proven safety measures remain insufficiently implemented across the country. Around half of all 50 km/h roads still do not have a separate cycle path, leaving cyclists directly exposed to motor traffic. Many busy urban streets continue to operate at 50 km/h, even though a 30 km/h limit significantly reduces the chance of fatal injury in a crash.
Meanwhile, traffic volumes are increasing, electric bikes are getting faster, and more vulnerable groups are using the road, yet infrastructure has not adapted at the same pace.
“Unpopular measures” needed to turn the trend
SWOV researcher Letty Aarts warns that without stronger political decisions, casualties will keep rising. “More is needed to turn the tide,” she says, calling for measures that are “less popular politically or socially.”
The institute recommends:
Mandatory helmets, especially for users of fast e-bikes
Lower speed limits, including expanding 30 km/h zones in cities
Intelligent Speed Assistance (ISA) in cars, ensuring drivers cannot exceed the limit
Separation of cyclists and motor traffic on more roads
ISA technology is already available in new cars, and the EU is gradually rolling it out, but it is not yet required for all vehicles.
Public resistance still holds back effective policies
Many of the most effective interventions: lower speeds, speed-governing technology, and compulsory helmets; are politically sensitive. SWOV notes that such measures often face strong resistance at first, especially from drivers or cyclists who feel restricted. But past experience shows that once implemented, they tend to become broadly accepted and save lives.
Local and national governments have taken steps in recent years, especially around school zones and some 30 km/h conversions, but SWOV concludes the current pace is far too slow to reverse the long-term trends.
Without stronger action, casualties will continue to rise
The institute’s projections are clear: without decisive measures, the Netherlands will see more road deaths and more severely injured people every year, particularly among cyclists and older residents.
SWOV argues that the country still has the tools to become a global leader in road safety again, but only if policymakers are willing to introduce bolder, less popular measures that have been proven to work.
