Chance of a Fourth Regional Heatwave in the Netherlands, With Heat Plan Returning Again
The National Heat Plan takes effect on Wednesday in Limburg, Noord-Brabant, Gelderland and Overijssel, the third time this year. Wednesday looks the hottest, with up to 35°C locally in the southeast.
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The Netherlands is in for another burst of hot weather this week, and from Wednesday the National Heat Plan will be switched on again in four provinces. It is the third time the plan has been activated this summer, following the deadly heatwave of June and a second spell in mid-July.
Where and when
The public health institute RIVM has said the National Heat Plan will apply from Wednesday in the southern and eastern provinces of Limburg, Noord-Brabant, Gelderland and Overijssel. Temperatures rise noticeably through Tuesday, and Wednesday is expected to be the warmest day of the week, reaching between 30 and 37°C in many places. The weather service KNMI expects it to climb to around 35°C locally in the southeast. A code yellow warning, the lowest of the three levels, is in force for the heat.
A possible fourth regional heatwave
Forecasters say this spell could bring a fourth regional heatwave of the year. In the Netherlands, a heatwave has a specific meaning: at least five consecutive summer days, with a daytime high of 25°C or more, in the central weather station in De Bilt, of which at least three must be tropical, meaning 30°C or above. A regional heatwave is the same pattern measured at a local weather station rather than the national one. Whether the threshold is met depends on how long the warmth holds.
What the heat plan is for
The National Heat Plan is not an emergency measure so much as a warning system. When it is active, the RIVM sends out what it calls “heat emails” to organisations, care workers and informal carers, so they can take the warmth into account and look after people who are more at risk. It also issues advice on avoiding discomfort and health problems in the heat. The decision to activate it is taken by the RIVM in consultation with the KNMI, and depends not only on how hot it will be but also on the expected night-time temperatures and humidity.
The reason for the caution is that heat can be dangerous for some groups. Older people, young children and those in poor health are more vulnerable, and this year the risks have already been felt: during June’s heatwave, which brought the country’s first ever code red warning for heat, the RIVM estimated that around 480 more people than usual died in a single week. This week’s heat is milder than that, but the advice to take care still applies.
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The advice
The guidance from the RIVM and KNMI is much the same as during earlier hot spells. People are advised to drink enough water, to avoid heavy physical activity during the hottest hours, and to keep indoor spaces as cool as possible by closing curtains and windows during the day and airing rooms early in the morning. It also helps to stay out of full sun between late morning and early evening, and to keep an eye on older or unwell neighbours, friends and relatives.
Cities tend to feel warmer than the surrounding countryside, an effect known as the urban heat island, because buildings produce heat and hold onto it. For context, the highest temperature ever recorded in the Netherlands is 40.7°C, measured at Gilze-Rijen in Noord-Brabant on 25 July 2019.
What comes after
As is usual with Dutch summer heat, the warmth is not expected to last long, and forecasters have signalled that the weather is likely to turn in parts of the country later in the week, bringing cooler and more changeable conditions. For the next couple of days, though, the message is to take the heat seriously and to check on those who may struggle in it.