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For a long time, having a diploma from a university or university of applied sciences meant you could count on steady work in the Netherlands. But new figures show that this is changing. More people with higher education are now claiming unemployment benefits, and the benefits agency partly connects this trend to the rise of artificial intelligence.
What the figures show
A new report from the UWV as reported by the FD and ANP, which handles unemployment benefits (WW), shows that people with a university (wo) or university of applied sciences (hbo) degree made up 30 percent of all WW claimants in 2022. By 2026, this had increased to 38 percent.
One reason is simple: more Dutch people have higher education now, so they make up a bigger part of both the workforce and the unemployed. But the UWV also points to other reasons in some jobs, like the fast growth of AI, company reorganisations, and wider economic and political uncertainty. UWV board member Judith Duveen warned that the job security once linked to an HBO or WO diploma is fading.
Which jobs are affected
The UWV report highlights certain jobs where the impact is clear. AI is changing office and knowledge work the fastest, especially jobs focused on texts, numbers, and data. The agency notes that more highly educated marketing staff and IT professionals are claiming benefits. In July 2026, almost 6,400 people from IT jobs were receiving WW, partly due to reorganisations at banks that have cut thousands of jobs in recent years, expecting AI to handle some tasks. In customer service roles, the number of WW recipients went up by 42 percent between the second quarter of 2023 and the same period in 2026.
People just starting their careers are also feeling the effects. The UWV notes that it is getting harder for newcomers, as some of the entry-level jobs they used to do are now under pressure.
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Not a fix for the ‘mismatch’
Importantly, having more highly educated people out of work does not fix the bigger problem in the Dutch job market. The country still faces what the UWV calls a “mismatch”: there are not enough job-seekers with the specific skills employers need, especially in technology, care, and education. For example, a marketing graduate on benefits cannot fill a nurse or electrician job. The UWV even worries it might get harder for some higher-educated people to find work, as the jobs they trained for are under pressure.
The suggested solution is retraining and moving between sectors. Duveen is calling on industries to make their training and development funds (bijscholingsfondsen) available, so people can retrain and switch to sectors where workers are needed, instead of keeping these funds limited to one industry.
The bigger picture
These findings give a clear Dutch example in the global debate about how much AI will change white-collar jobs. The UWV is careful not to exaggerate, saying AI is likely a factor in some professions but not the only reason. Overall, the job market is still tight in most fields, even though it is cooling. This comes at a time when there is a heated political debate about the WW itself. The current cabinet wants to shorten it, but unions strongly oppose this, making the question of who will need it, and for how long, even more important.