Around 480 More People Died Than Expected During Last Week's Heatwave, RIVM Estimates
The figure is a provisional estimate and could still rise; the health institute says older people and the chronically ill are most at risk, and its heat plan urges extra care for them.
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Around 480 more people died than expected during last week’s heatwave in the Netherlands, according to a first estimate by the public health institute RIVM. It is an early measure of the human toll of a hot spell that also brought the country’s first ever code red warning for heat.
What the figures show
In the week of 22 to 28 June, about 3,050 deaths would normally have been expected. The actual total came to around 3,530, some 480 more. This gap between the expected and the actual number is what is known as excess mortality, and it is the main way researchers estimate how many deaths are linked to an event such as a heatwave.
Most of those who died were aged 80 and over. The rise was also uneven across the country: proportionally, the most deaths were in the east and south, the regions where temperatures climbed highest during the heatwave, which lasted from 18 to 29 June and included several tropical nights, when the temperature stayed at 20°C or above.
A provisional estimate
The RIVM stressed that the picture is not yet complete. A death is sometimes only registered a few weeks after it happens, so the figure could still rise as more records come in. The estimate is therefore an early indication rather than a final count.
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Who is most at risk
Older people and those with chronic illnesses are more vulnerable in extreme heat, the RIVM said. Their organs work less efficiently, they tend to feel less thirsty, and they sweat less, all of which make it harder for the body to shed heat. The institute’s National Heat Plan, issued before the hot spell began, calls on care institutions and informal carers to pay extra attention to people at risk. Alongside the elderly and the chronically ill, that group also includes people who are overweight and very young babies.
A falling trend
Despite the sharp rise last week, there is a longer-term improvement. The RIVM said the chance of dying on very hot days has fallen since 2010, something it attributes in part to greater public awareness of the risks of heat and how to cope with it.
That awareness is likely to be tested again. Extreme heat is becoming more common, and the practical advice for future hot spells is the same as during the last one: drink enough, stay out of the midday sun, keep homes cool, and, above all, keep an eye on older or unwell neighbours, friends and relatives who may be struggling in the heat.